Will Capacity Remain Plentiful For 2009 and Into 2010?

In order to answer this question we must first lookIt is the simple law of supply and demand. If capacity
at the reasons for our current situation in theis taken out of the marketplace faster than demand
marketplace. It is estimated that the current capacityfalls then the pricing and financial stability would begin
issues(less freight with more equipment) startedto come back. But for now demand is still less than
sometime around the middle of 2006. No one wasthe capacity in the marketplace. Many trucking
too concerned at this at the time as there haveprofessionals believe that when the economy does
been steady fluctuations felt throughout the yearbegin to recover that the capacity that has been
and traditionally things seemed to almost come inforced out of the marketplace will lead to increased
somewhat predictable cycles. Some assumed thatdemand by the shippers thus allowing carriers to
the market place was just simply correcting itselfcapitalize. One common thing you hear from
after 4 years of higher rates and pricing from theprofessionals in the trucking industry is that those
carriers. However, the slump continued to worsenwho survive will be in a better position than ever
and by the 3rd quarter of 2008 freight demandbefore.
seemed to begin to dissipate at an even higher rateNo one can say with any real certainty when the
and some of the largest trucking companies began toeconomy will rebound, whether it is in late 2009 or
struggle financially. Many professionals that had beendeep into 2010 is anyone's guess at this point. Most
in the industry for a large part of their lifetime saidindicators point to a recovery over the next year.
what they were witnessing was the worst freightWith that said, shippers should be looking now at
downturn that they had ever seen.their carrier portfolios and make sure it consists of
It is clear now that what has led to these issuessolid financially strong carriers (small or large fleets)
both on the manufacturing side and trucking side iswho are not simply going to leave them in search of
the current U.S. economic crisis. The worst industriesgreener pastures when the conditions change.
hit have been the housing and the automobileShippers should start to consider locking in pricing for
industry. Their inventory levels have remained highthe next year and beyond if possible. Most
and shippers and manufacturers are simply not seeingimportantly building relevant relationships and having
these levels shrink at the volumes they werean open dialogue about the current and upcoming
accustomed to. Freight carriers have seen themarket conditions will carry the most weight. There
volume of freight drop significantly due to this weakcan really be no such thing as a "partnership" because
economy and the lack of building and manufacturing.when it comes down to it you are still the customer
As we begin the 3rd quarter of 2009 it is looking lessand the carrier is still the vendor invoicing you.
likely like this trend will suddenly correct itself andHowever a relevant relationship that is truly
some are now saying we will most likely see a moreconsultative and beneficial to both parties will
noticeable upward trend in 2010.ultimately win out.